Comparing Turnover Intentions and Actual Turnover in the Public Sector Workforce

Authors: Tuan D. Nguyen, Elizabeth Bettini, Christopher Redding, Allison F. Gilmour

Project Summary

When teachers choose to leave their jobs, it can be disruptive and costly for their school and district, affecting everything from student learning to the experiences of other teachers and staff. For this reason, policymakers have been worried by indications that many teachers are thinking about leaving the profession. But just how reliable are these warning signs that teachers are thinking of leaving? In this study, a group of researchers aimed to understand the relationship between teachers’ self-reported intentions to leave the profession or transfer schools and their actual turnover.

Key Findings

• Teachers’ intentions to leave or transfer schools are somewhat predictive of actual turnover, particularly for those who say they plan to leave teaching as soon as possible.
• However, most teachers who say they plan to leave their school don’t end up leaving, while many who don’t intend to leave do.
• Teacher intentions can be a useful signal that teachers are dissatisfied with their jobs and that they may be more likely to turnover—but they are not a proxy for actual attrition.